Bob Norton has written extensively about the potential threat to food and agriculture being posed by North Korea.
Quiet but very firm pressure on North Korea is being ramped up by both the U.S. and by China. Food defense, logistics and OIT security managers are urged to carefully monitor the North Korea situation given the hermit kingdom’s anticipated reaction, even though no credible, publicly available threats are known at this time, The most probable first reaction will be cyber-based, possibly escalating to other types of attacks in the foreseeable future.
China, having propped up and facilitated the Communist regime for decades, now realizes that a nuclear-armed North Korea is in no one’s best interest. The suspension of fuel sales to North Korea by China is a clear indication of Beijing’s increasing frustration. If either a conventional or nuclear war were to occur, China would be the recipient of countless unwanted refugees.
Kim Jong-un’s and the ruling regime’s days are clearly numbered. Military options are being strongly considered by the Trump administration, as publicly noted by national security adviser H.R. McMaster and homeland security chief John Kelly. North Korea will not be allowed to place a nuclear weapon on an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which would enable Pyongyang to strike the U.S. The Chinese do not want that happening any more than the U.S. does, since an attack on the U.S. would illicit a massive and surely nuclear response. In such a scenario, Pyongyang would be no more.
Rest assured that all military actions will take place with the full knowledge and tacit approval of China. A protracted war on the Korean peninsula will not be necessary, as a “decapitation operation” (simultaneously killing much of North Korean leadership) is a favored military scenario. Even so, the potential exists for massive casualties in both North and South Korea. The effect on world markets would be profound, perhaps even cataclysmic, but hopefully temporary, depending on how fast the U.S. would be able to achieve military objectives and China would be able to go into North Korea with massive numbers of troops to stabilize the situation.
Trade would no doubt also be seriously affected, as civilian flagged ships will likely be prohibited from entering waters surrounding the war zone. Again, the U.S. and China would coordinate military and political efforts. Let us hope for everyone’s sake that China decisively deals with Pyongyang before the U.S. is forced to do so. Quiet diplomacy is ongoing between Beijing and Washington. Expect lots of misinformation and posturing in the coming weeks, as psychological warfare is clearly at play—coming from both directions. Read more HERE, HERE and HERE.